Recent reports have tempered excitement surrounding T-Mobile’s upcoming satellite internet service in collaboration with SpaceX. Although the official launch is scheduled for July, the service is currently in beta, allowing customers to send texts via satellite. An analysis conducted by Universidad Politecnica de Madrid suggests that initial data speeds may not meet expectations.
The analysis utilized crowdsourced mobile network data from Weplan Analytics to explore the capabilities and limitations of the satellite feature. The data covers the period from October 2024, when the satellite service was launched in areas affected by hurricanes, to April 2025. It found a clear correlation between the number of satellites in orbit and coverage expansion, particularly in underserved areas like national parks and sparsely populated regions.
The report noted that while direct-to-cellular signals were stable during the analyzed period, the lower signal strength compared to LTE might lead to faster battery depletion on connected devices. Researchers concluded that T-Mobile and SpaceX’s data service could initially offer speeds of around 4 Mbps outdoors, which would suffice for basic connectivity but fall short of terrestrial averages. Future prospects may include a speed increase to up to 24 Mbps, driven by higher radiated power, wider bandwidth allocation, and ongoing satellite constellation expansion.
However, experts caution that achieving this theoretical maximum speed hinges on regulatory developments concerning spectrum access and the evolution of service demand. While initial speeds may be lower than anticipated, T-Mobile’s satellite service is notable as the only large-scale deployment among US carriers. Expectations remain modest, as data services are intended to be low-impact, thus reflecting a cautious but promising path forward for satellite internet connectivity.