Counterpoint Research has significantly adjusted its forecast for global smartphone sales in 2025, now projecting only a 1.9% year-over-year increase, down from an earlier estimate of 4.2%. This represents a substantial 55% reduction. The firm attributes this downward adjustment to ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. tariffs.
In particular, Counterpoint anticipates a 3% annual decline in phone sales across North America due to rising prices caused by these tariffs, specifically those imposed by former President Trump’s administration. As companies like Apple and Samsung face increased costs due to tariffs on imported products, there is an expectation that these expenses will be passed on to consumers. Thus, buyers may bear the brunt of higher prices when purchasing new smartphones later this year.
The tariffs effectively function as income taxes for U.S. companies, which hold the option to absorb these costs, pass them entirely to consumers, or share the burden. Contrastingly, while North America is poised for a decrease in smartphone sales, other regions are expected to experience growth. China’s smartphone market forecasts flat sales in 2025, despite government subsidy initiatives.
North America and China are the two markets most affected by tariffs, leading to disappointing sales figures. In a surprising turn, Huawei is projected to achieve the highest growth among smartphone manufacturers, with a forecasted uptick of 11% in 2025. This increase is attributed to Huawei’s advancements in chip design, now leveraging China’s SMIC foundry.
Following Huawei, Motorola and Xiaomi are estimated to see growth rates of 4%, while Apple and Realme are each predicted to grow by 3%. This forecast emphasizes shifting dynamics in the smartphone industry landscape for the coming year.