CTIA has issued a warning to customers of AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon about potential network congestion starting next year. The three major carriers utilize the same infrastructure to provide both smartphone and broadband services, particularly through Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), which leverages excess capacity on mobile networks for broadband connectivity in homes and offices. However, concerns are growing that the increasing demand for these services could soon strain network capacity. In the first quarter of the year, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon were significant contributors to the growth in the broadband sector, surpassing traditional cable and fiber operators.
Despite this success, industry experts note that the finite nature of 5G networks means this upward trend might hit a ceiling sooner than expected. Current analyses indicate that both T-Mobile and Verizon could be nearing critical thresholds of their network resources, with analysts suggesting potential congestion could begin before 2030. The shortage of available spectrum is projected to impact consumers beginning in 2026. By 2027, high-traffic areas may see networks struggling to meet nearly 25% of peak demand.
This situation is anticipated to worsen further, with only 27% of peak demand being met by 2035 if no additional spectrum is secured. Improving network capacity without expanding spectrum is expected to yield diminishing returns. Despite these projections, recent findings from Ookla suggest that FWA services from T-Mobile and Verizon have been achieving increased speeds, indicating that the networks are not yet overloaded. Analysts also point out that T-Mobile’s FWA customers are consuming significantly more data compared to smartphone users.
Currently, AT&T is utilizing 44% of its capacity, T-Mobile approximately 68%, and Verizon around 83%. Although there is no immediate concern about capacity constraints, the potential for future demand fluctuations emphasizes the need for FWA providers to start exploring new spectrum resources.